Ontario Premier Doug Ford, left to right, Minister of Finance Peter Bethlenfalvy and Ontario Lt. Gov. Edith Dumont pose for a photo during a cabinet swearing-in ceremony in 海角社区官网on Wednesday, March 19, 2025. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette
Ontario Premier Doug Ford, left to right, Minister of Finance Peter Bethlenfalvy and Ontario Lt. Gov. Edith Dumont pose for a photo during a cabinet swearing-in ceremony in 海角社区官网on Wednesday, March 19, 2025. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette
Jake Fuss and Grady Munro are fiscal policy analysts at the Fraser Institute.
While the tariff war is grabbing all the headlines, 聽on May 15 the Ford government will table its first budget since it was re-elected in February. During the election campaign, Premier Doug Ford his government as 鈥渧ery fiscally responsible鈥 and 鈥減rudent fiscal managers with the taxpayers鈥 money.鈥 But Ford鈥檚 track record has been anything but prudent, and the upcoming budget will likely contain even more spending and mismanagement.
The Ford government has often painted itself as fiscally responsible. When releasing its first fiscal plan after the election victory in 2018, then finance minister Vic Fedeli the 鈥15 years of the previous government鈥檚 mismanagement鈥 and promised to 鈥済et Ontario鈥檚 finances back on track鈥 by spending 鈥渟marter鈥 and balancing the budget. Last year, current Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy penned an article the government again as 鈥渇iscally responsible.鈥
The message is clear 鈥 the Ford government wants you to believe it鈥檚 taken a responsible approach to spending that differs from the mismanagement of previous governments. But what does Ford鈥檚 actual fiscal track record show?
For starters, Ford has presided the second- and third-highest levels of program spending (on a per-person basis, after adjusting for inflation) in Ontario history 鈥 even after you exclude emergency spending during COVID. In fact, despite routinely his predecessors, Ford has demonstrated a approach to spending as former premier Kathleen Wynne, with per-person program spending higher today than when Wynne left office (again, after adjusting for inflation).
Consequently, the Ford government has run budget deficits in years from 2018/19 to 2023/24 (with the only surplus coming from a surprise windfall of revenues in 2021/22) and a $6.6 billion deficit for 2024/25, for a total projected $43.3 billion in borrowing to cover day-to-day government operations.
Why should Ontarians care? There are reasons.
Because deficits fuel debt accumulation, interest payments (which will reach a projected $12.7 billion this fiscal year) divert money away from services including health care and education. And Ford recently that his government hasn鈥檛 raised taxes on Ontarians, but younger generations of Ontarians will pay for today鈥檚 spending through higher taxes tomorrow.
Which brings us to the other pillar of fiscal policy 鈥 taxes.
During the 2018 election campaign, Ford promised to cut Ontario鈥檚 second income tax bracket by 20 per cent. Today in 2025, that promise to middle-income Ontarians remains unfulfilled. Ontario also has the third-highest combined (federal/provincial) top income tax rate in North America, which makes it harder to attract and retain high-skilled workers (e.g. doctors and engineers), entrepreneurs, and investment that helps fuel prosperity.
Also in 2018, Ford promised to reduce the province鈥檚 business income tax rate, which 鈥 seven years later 鈥 remains stuck at 11.5 per cent. The Ford government should reduce income taxes for individuals and businesses, allow Ontarians to keep more of their hard-earned money, and encourage economic activity and investment, particularly during these uncertain times.聽
Unfortunately for Ontarians, the Ford government will likely continue its same tax-and-spend approach in its upcoming budget. Indeed, the government鈥檚 election promised tens of billions in new spending on infrastructure and programs and potentially billions more meant to mitigate any damage from U.S. President Donald Trump鈥檚 tariffs. There鈥檚 also no commitment to lower income tax rates.
Ford鈥檚 track record demonstrates none of the fiscal prudence he claims. Instead, his approach to managing taxpayer money has been to spend it all 鈥 and then some 鈥 and expect you to be happy he didn鈥檛 raise taxes even higher. Rather than continue this same approach in the upcoming budget, the Ford government should finally get spending under control, balance the budget, and fulfil Ford鈥檚 promises to cut taxes. A responsible pro-growth approach to fiscal policy will serve Ontario well, during times of uncertainty and beyond.
Jake Fuss and Grady Munro are fiscal policy analysts at the Fraser Institute.
Opinion articles are based on the author鈥檚 interpretations and judgments of facts, data and events. More details
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