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Of course, the context then changed 鈥� dramatically.

Trudeau stepped down. Mark Carney stepped in. Donald Trump returned to the White House, bringing with him annexation talk, punitive tariffs, and a stream of threats to Canadian sovereignty and stability.

The political conversation quickly shifted. What was once a race focused on domestic scarcity became one framed around international precarity. And with it, the qualities Canadians were looking for in a leader changed too.

Trudeau鈥檚 departure left the Liberals scrambling. But the timing may have been fortuitous. Carney entered the fray relatively unknown to many Canadians, but his reputation as a former central banker gave him instant credibility 鈥� particularly at a time when voters were craving competence and calm. Since January, Carney鈥檚 personal favourables have climbed from 19 per cent to 46 per cent 鈥� a remarkable rise for someone with no prior political experience and a limited public profile.

And yet, this isn鈥檛 a coronation. The path here has been shaped as much by Poilievre鈥檚 strategic constraints as Carney鈥檚 emergence.

Throughout 2023 and much of 2024, Poilievre effectively tapped into a deep vein of frustration, particularly among younger voters, over the economy, borders, and government. But the Trump factor complicated that story. Today, about one in four Conservative supporters still hold a favourable view of Trump, which makes a full-throated rejection of the U.S. president politically risky.

The result is a campaign that has split into two overlapping but distinct narratives. One is about affordability and change 鈥� ground the Conservatives are more comfortable on. The other is about stability and leadership in a time of global uncertainty 鈥� a frame that clearly benefits the Liberals.

At one point during the campaign, 56 per cent of Canadians told us the most important ballot question was 鈥淲hich party is best able to deal with Donald Trump鈥檚 threats to Canada?鈥� That number has since shifted slightly, with a growing share now returning to the 鈥渢ime for a change鈥� frame. But even among those voters, one in four say they鈥檙e supporting the Liberals 鈥� an indication that Carney has done enough to distance himself from the Trudeau years and offer a 鈥渘ew Liberal鈥� option that satisfies a chunk of the change-seeking electorate.

Turnout is also expected to be high. Our current projection is 71 per cent, well above the last few federal contests. That level of engagement reflects the stakes many Canadians feel.

Regionally, the Liberal lead is built on strong numbers in Ontario, British Columbia, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada. Among older voters, the Liberals now enjoy a clear advantage. Younger voters, who initially leaned Conservative, have migrated somewhat toward the Liberals and NDP.

So where does this leave Poilievre and the Conservatives?

Their vote share remains competitive 鈥� around 37 per cent nationally 鈥� and there is still a strong desire for change among more than half the electorate. But time is running out. The challenge now is not just to highlight frustration with the status quo, but to continue to try and refocus attention away from Trump and back onto domestic renewal. That won鈥檛 be easy.

Ultimately, this election is a study in how quickly public opinion can shift 鈥� and how context can rewrite campaigns. It鈥檚 a reminder that sometimes a campaign is won or lost not on who makes the better argument, but on which argument voters choose to care about most.