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Supporters of the idea have cited the EU’s need for minerals and other natural resources, of which Canada has plenty. The two also share similar views on governance, social issues and the climate crisis. “A rich new joiner would help the EU’s finances,” argued a earlier this month.

While an interesting thought experiment, Canada becoming an EU member state remains highly improbable, experts in foreign affairs said. It’s far more likely for Canada to instead bolster its already substantial economic ties with the EU in the face of Trump’s threats.

“There’s definitely a case for closer relations and co-ordination in the face of Trump,” said Achim Hurrelmann, a professor specializing in the politics of the European Union at Carleton University. “But becoming an EU member state is really a long shot.”

Could Canada join the EU?

There’s nothing in Canada’s constitution that would stop it from joining an alliance like the EU, explained Gregory Tardi, a former legal counsel to the House of Commons and Elections Canada. The question is whether the EU would allow Canada in — and whether Canadians would even want such a thing.

The first hurdle: Canada is obviously not in Europe. The Treaty on European Union explicitly reads that only European states can join the EU — meaning for Canada to join, that article would need to be amended.

Morocco applied to join the precursor to the EU in 1987, but was shot down because it wasn’t a European country. And although Turkey is an EU candidate despite largely being located in the Middle East, it does possess European territories, meaning it qualifies, Hurrelmann explained. Canada has none.

That said, if EU member states were serious about admitting Canada, it is possible for them to change the criteria: “Adding a member state requires unanimity of the existing member states anyways,” Hurrelmann said. “It’s the same majority that would be necessary to change that treaty provision.”

In fact, Canada’s geographic location might be the least problematic obstacle on its path to EU membership, argued Amy Verdun, a professor of political science at the University of Victoria. EU candidacy is less about where the country is located and more about its shared values, she said.

Actually joining the union is an incredibly lengthy legal process that could take decades to complete; it took the U.K. over a decade to gain membership to the EU’s predecessor after its application in 1961. Turkey is still being considered after applying in 1987. 

First, all 27 member states must agree to grant Canada candidacy status. Next comes a lengthy negotiation process where Canadian policies across every sector are examined and brought into accordance with European law — from market regulations and food standards to regional policies and even the currency in use.

“There are many little things that have to be adjusted,” Verdun said, adding that our standards, from our units of measurement to our security and migration policies, are oriented toward North American standards, not European ones. It could take years, if not decades, to negotiate.

After all that, every member state must unanimously agree to allow the candidate country into the EU, Verdun said.

“It’s very possible that geopolitical changes could suddenly speed up the process, but it’s very unlikely it would speed it up (by much),” she continued.

That’s not considering whether Canadians would be open to such an arrangement in the first place. A Canadian EU membership “would mean a very significant transfer of sovereignty to the joint bodies of the European Union,” Hurrelmann added — a touchy subject, taking into account the overwhelming Canadian opposition against Trump’s annexationist rhetoric.

Could Canada grow closer to the EU?

The more likely scenario is for Canada to strengthen its already considerable economic ties with the EU.

Canada produces far more natural materials than it needs, meaning it requires other countries to sell to. An overwhelming majority — more than 75 per cent — of its trade currently goes to the U.S., but Trump’s 25 per cent tariffs is throwing this close relationship into jeopardy.

The EU is currently Canada’s second largest trading partner. Europe is also in desperate need of the natural resources that Canada has in great supply, Hurrelmann noted. It would make sense for Canada to deepen this economic relationship as it seeks to diversify its trading partners.

An obvious starting point would be for EU member states to finally ratify the Canada-EU Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), Verdun said. CETA is a landmark free-trade agreement that, since it was signed in 2016, saw trade in merchandise between Canada and the EU grow by 65 per cent, and services by almost 73 per cent. That amounted to $126.5 and $64.9 billion in 2023, respectively, .

CETA came into force provisionally in 2017, meaning most of the agreement has already come into affect; 98 per cent of the tariffs on Canadian goods entering the EU have already been eliminated, for example. But formally ratifying the agreement would offer security for Canadian businesses and assurance that neither country would pull out of the alliance, Verdun explained.

There are other options. It’s possible that Canada joins the EU as a third country state, similar to Liechtenstein, Norway or Switzerland. This would allow the country access to the EU single market without the burden of becoming a full member state, mused Benjamin Zyla, a professor at the University of Ottawa’s School of International Development and Global Studies.

Even if that were the case, it’s no simple task to switch trading partners, Hurrelmann said: “It’s not just like flipping a switch, you can’t easily transition from trading mainly with the United States to another place.”

Canada would need to reshape its infrastructure and economy to fit the European market. We’d need new pipelines — if the environmentally-minded EU even wants our oil, Hurrelmann continued. “If it occurs, it’s going to be a decade-long project or so.”

There is a silver-lining to Trump’s tariff threat. Canada’s overreliance on American trade has placed the nation in a precarious position, Hurrelmann said. But despite striving to diversify our trading partners for decades, there has been little movement on this front.

Perhaps Trump’s promise of economic catastrophe could finally get the ball rolling.