It’s a challenge familiar to many businesses: your biggest corporate customer has a new boss who wants to re-evaluate everything.
It’s even harder when they start with a bias that everyone wants to rip them off.
That’s Canada’s challenge as Donald Trump returns to the White House in January.
For business, the campaign was alarming. We witnessed disdain for international alliances, and promises of tariffs and trade wars. We heard anti-immigrant rhetoric and a proposal to deport some 11 million people, which would damage America’s economy and risk a migrant crisis at our border. We see America going down an unsustainable, inflationary fiscal path, with deep tax cuts while deficits are at levels usually reserved for recessions or wars.
These things can seem abstract, so let’s translate them into everyday realities: Imagine a car costing $8,000 more because of tariffs. Imagine running a business that depends on imports that have become prohibitively expensive. Imagine the agony of shutting down a plant or laying off workers in Ontario, Illinois, Michigan or Pennsylvania.
That’s the reality when our two countries have the world’s largest bilateral trading relationship. In Ontario alone, some $1 billion of goods and services cross the border every day. Across Canada, it’s $3.6 billion a day. That makes the annual economic stakes to the U.S. and Canada more than $1 trillion.
The landscape is harsh but not hopeless. Campaigning and governing are very different processes — even for populists. Further, Canada has economic reality on its side. We have influential U.S. business allies. And we have products, services and capabilities of enormous value.
Here are the top ten things we can do:
Present a united front
In both approach and message, we need alignment between provincial and federal governments, opposition leaders, and the business community.
Together, we have a vast range of relationships – in Washington, in state capitals, with chambers of commerce, and with countless businesses.
Make it ‘North America first’
We must consider the world the new administration inherits, and the forces it fears. Canada’s strategy – previewed by Ontario Premier Doug Ford – should include proactive proposals to strengthen North America’s economy and security at a time of shifting alliances and threats from America’s rivals.
It’s (still) the economy, stupid
For the second time in eight years, Trump will inherit a thriving U.S. economy.
Job one is not to mess it up just as ordinary people start to feel it. He needs to hear from the business community that America’s prosperity depends on an open market that embraces innovation and competition.
The reality of integration
Given global trends and Trump’s predispositions, tariffs are inevitable. However, they need not be universal. Given the integration between our economies and supply chains, there’s an airtight case that Canada-U.S. trade should flow freely, and that there’s mutual benefit in renewing the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement in 2026.
Invest in security
While America’s southern border took centre stage in the election, Canada’s concern is the one we share – and our own northern border with Russia.
We must strengthen our commitment to North American and global security, and meet our defence spending commitments.
Share our assets
We can make a powerful case that Canada has assets the U.S. needs: energy. Minerals. Nuclear power. AI research excellence. Doing business with us is strategically smarter than the alternatives, notably China.
Be competitive
We must ensure the cost of investing and doing business in Ontario and Canada remains competitive with the U.S. Investment will go where it’s wanted, welcomed and rewarded. And with America going through uncertainty, we can attract investment in Canada, and the jobs that come with it.
Attract top talent
Canada must double down on its investments in research at our post-secondary institutions. During the first Trump presidency, we learned that when the U.S. is less welcoming to international research talent, Canada is an outstanding alternative – provided that our institutions have the funding to do the work.
Diversify our markets over time
While every business must look after its biggest customer, it must also grow business elsewhere. Canada has more trade agreements than any other G7 country; we need to leverage them. Within Canada, we also need to eliminate interprovincial trade barriers, benefiting businesses across the country.
Articulate Canadian values
The best of friends can disagree, so let’s be unapologetic in standing for Canadian values.
This does not mean lecturing or vacuous virtue-signalling.
It means acting with humility; being reliable partners in international alliances; celebrating the contributions of immigrant communities; meeting our climate commitments; and upholding democracy, security and the rule of law — particularly through unflagging support for Ukraine.
Imagine, once more, that you’re that business worried about its relationship with its biggest customer.
Would you sit and wait for them to make decisions on their own? Or would you take the initiative?
The smart business does the latter — and is more likely to hold the Trump card.
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