Ottawa soon will have a $74-billion decision to make.
That鈥檚 the estimated cost of buying 88 American-made F-35 Lightning II fighter jets and maintaining them over the next several decades, (PBO).
On March 14, Prime Minister Mark Carney put that purchase on 鈥渞eview鈥 to determine if Canada should be buying jet fighters from a country waging economic war against it.
Carney wants to reduce Canada鈥檚 military reliance the U.S., which supplies most of Canada鈥檚 armed forces materiel.
Canada is legally and financially committed to taking delivery of the first allotment of 16 F-35s, with deliveries scheduled to begin next year. But the balance of the order, 72 planes, is now in doubt.
There is urgency here. The new fighter jets are needed to replace Canada鈥檚 aging fleet of CF-18s.
The decades-long political process of deciding on a CF-18 replacement highlights Canada鈥檚 poor record in military procurement.
The first of the 15 modern 鈥淩iver-class鈥 destroyers Ottawa ordered in 2024 won鈥檛 be ready for deployment until the early 2030s.
The Harper government announced in 2010 that Canada would buy 65 F-35s, made by Lockheed Martin of Bethesda, Md.
Harper鈥檚 Department of National Defence (DND) wanted a fleet of stealth fighter jets basically identical to that of the U.S. so that in a pinch Canadian pilots trained on the F-35 could fly the U.S. version.
But the Harper government eventually balked at the cost of the F-35s and chose not to buy them.
Finally, in 2023, the Trudeau government committed to the F-35, agreeing to purchase 88 planes. It chose the F-35 over a rival bidder, the Gripen, made by Sweden鈥檚 Saab AB.
Now the overdue replacement of the CF-18s is once again in limbo.
It鈥檚 quite likely, however, that Canada will stick with the F-35, and for good reason. It is widely regarded as the world鈥檚 most advanced jet fighter, and one of the few available in large quantities.
In its long development phase, the F-35 suffered countless setbacks that gave it an unenviable reputation. The earliest F-35s were more often found in a repair hangar than in the air.
The F-35 is among the most ambitious aircraft programs ever. It is intended to serve all four branches of the U.S. military.
And to recoup its development costs, Lockheed designed the F-35 to also meet the varied needs of the 32 NATO member countries, in Lockheed鈥檚 hope of selling as many copies as possible.
Lockheed has ironed out the early prototypes鈥 deficiencies. There now are more than 1,100 F-35s in service with 16 armed forces worldwide. By comparison, there are only about 300 Gripens in service.聽聽聽
If it proceeds with buying all the F-35s it ordered, Ottawa should bargain for more Canadian job creation by Lockheed.
That bargaining also needs to include Canadian access to the source code by which the F-35鈥檚 software of unprecedented sophistication is continually updated.
It is a realistic concern that a hostile U.S. president could order Lockheed to withhold those updates.
That wouldn鈥檛 render our F-35s useless, but it would make them increasingly out of date.
Withholding spare parts, which a U.S. government could also do, would indeed cripple the planes.
But that could compromise America鈥檚 own fleet of F-35s, given that the plane鈥檚 supply chain includes about 110 Canadian companies.
It would make obvious sense for Canada to push for access to the source code聽鈥 the 鈥渒ey鈥 to its software 鈥 and even make that a deal-breaker.
There are other superb fighter jets out there.
They include the Eurofighter Typhoon, made by a consortium of Airbus, BAE and Leonardo; and the Rafale, made by France鈥檚 Dassault Aviation. Both are highly rated by defence aviation experts and would help Canada achieve its goal of strengthening its military ties with Europe.
The Gripen, another European option, can fly faster than the F-35 and boasts longer range. But it is not a stealth fighter聽鈥 able to avoid detection聽鈥 and uses an American-made engine. The Rafale has the fewest U.S. components of the aircraft described here.
The ink is barely dry on Ottawa鈥檚 order for the new destroyers mentioned earlier. They are estimated to cost about $306 billion over their life cycle, and are also loaded with U.S. software, much of it from Lockheed.
Ottawa could apply still more pressure on Lockheed by putting the destroyer order on hold, as well.
Ideally, the F-35 purchase would come with a technology transfer program, as government procurement orders often insist on.
Canada鈥檚 sudden hesitancy about buying the F-35s has raised doubts among other potential buyers of the plane, notably in Europe, which is also enraged by U.S. President Donald Trump鈥檚 tariff regime.
Conversely, a Canadian total commitment to the F-35 would make the aircraft a more lucrative export for the U.S.
Canada has leverage in demanding an F-35 deal in the country鈥檚 best interests.
Let鈥檚 use it.
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